It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they're still historically very low, ... We're continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of these low rates before they go back up.
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting, ... I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.
Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
For a while, everybody thought there would be no increase until year-end. They may hike rates sooner than we realize.
Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.
By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
The jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... The Fed keeps cutting rates as long as the jobless rate goes up. This time around is really no exception.