Bonds will probably show a gradual decline toward when the central bank will shift monetary policy. The possibility of a policy shift will stay in the minds of investors, preventing them from buying debt.
It is very doubtful the 10-year yield reflects the outlook the central bank will soon change monetary policy. It is hard for investors to buy debt when the economy has strong growth momentum.
The Bank of Japan will try its best not to cause any opposition from the government about a shift in monetary policy.
The central bank has not responded yet to the pressure but the Ministry of Finance will continue pressing the bank to do something. Speculation the bank will try to keep yields lower is spreading.
The market is staying alert for Muto's speech. There is no consensus on when the bank will start raising rates, and people are wondering whether he will say anything concrete about the timing.