I don't know anybody out there who is not expecting the Bank of Canada to hike 25 basis points next week.
Most importantly, the Bank of Canada is not giving the impression that it has much of an appetite for further rate hikes beyond the 4 percent level.
The data aren't providing any reason for the Bank of Canada to pause. The risks are on the upside for rate increases. Investors are going to sell bonds.
There's little market reaction I think for two things. First, the strength was anticipated to some extent. Second, the market is very tightly focused on what the Bank of Canada is doing this afternoon.
The strength of today's report certainly will not be lost on the Bank of Canada ... as a result, we still believe the odds favor another rate hike from the bank in April.
You should see Canada's 10-year bonds rally in the second half of this year. I don't see a big appetite on the part of the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates as the economy slows. There is no compelling reason to go beyond 4 percent.
The Bank of Canada cannot afford to be complacent if it wants to keep inflation in check over its 18-24 month time horizon ... Look for the overnight rate to peak at 4 percent.
In our view, there is still is every reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to nudge its rate higher, and we are not changing our call for a four per cent (overnight) rate by April.