Paul Kasriel Curve Quotations

There are a lot of crosscurrents now, but falling yields might indicate that demand for credit is slowing down and that the Fed, by holding the fed funds rate where it is, is actually keeping rates all along the curve from falling to their equilibrium level, or to the level where would they would more naturally go.

The yield curve has been one of the more reliable indicators of turning points, not necessarily recessions, but slowdowns in the economy.