Bill Dreher Quotations

While Kohl's is expected to steal market share from Mervyn's, it should be limited to 1 to 2 percent of total division shares.

We believe this will have a negative impact on February sales for the majority of our retailers as the much colder weather will likely impede store traffic, and sales of spring merchandise sets that are now in stores may be impacted.

We believe this update is a combination of management's typical conservatism and sales sluggishness from the unusually warm weather.

On its own, a comp-store inventory increase of 2-to-5 percent is no big deal. But when you've got comp-store sales declines of closer to 10 percent, you're dealing with a possible 10-point spread, which we believe is going to cause retailers to push the promotional panic button earlier than they would have.

I don't think it's a Wal-Mart problem. It's a demographic problem. If you were focused on the moderate-income sector, you were disappointed.

Given the severity of the storm, we expect that stores in the affected areas could lose up to two days of sales as roads were nearly impossible to navigate.

Historically, Wal-Mart has only been concerned about the consumer. But 12 years ago, Wal-Mart began to woo the investor and sponsored fieldtrips to their headquarters. These were tremendously successful,

He (Lacy) was dealing with a deceitful department head who sounds like he was hiding some bad news, ... Our feeling is Alan Lacy is being very forthcoming and straightforward with the problems, and is tackling them very aggressively. But we're not convinced that's going to be enough to immediately restore investor confidence in shares.

I think it all comes down to Wal-Mart's aggressive advertising campaign. They are being much louder with their campaign, and I think they've done a good job of stealing the 'early-bird' holiday shoppers.

I think it all comes down to Wal-Mart's aggressive advertising campaign, ... They are being much louder with their campaign, and I think they've done a good job of stealing the 'early-bird' holiday shoppers.

It appears that the greatest factor for our retailers slowdown up until now had been the unseasonably warm weather, and as soon as we got more seasonally appropriate temperatures it unleashed pent up demand.

It appears that the greatest factor for our retailers' slowdown up until now had been the unseasonably warm weather, and as soon as we got more seasonally appropriate temperatures it unleashed pent up demand.

I think there's a lot of confusion about the state of the consumer. We had weak numbers in January. February sales were pushed down by horrible weather, and now March could be weak because of the Easter shift. It's difficult to see how things are going to turn out.

I think there continues to be a very strong psychological impact with people worried about their own safety and the safety of their families. I don't know what's going on with this flight, but whatever it turns out to be, it adds a significant psychological impact on consumer spending and on how the stocks behave.

Kohl's is having a major disconnect with its customers. The company's inventory growth is outpacing sales and I think their problems will continue into the fourth quarter and even the first quarter next year.

Kohl's is having a major disconnect with its customers, ... The company's inventory growth is outpacing sales and I think their problems will continue into the fourth quarter and even the first quarter next year.

Is all this a solution for the bigger concerns of the American consumers or the local gas station owner? No. But it is an example of the company trying to show its heart in the right place.

People are being much more rational with their expenditures. That's why we're seeing these discount price retailers generating strong customer traffic and solid sales increases. And we expect strong earnings increases from them.

Retailers that are not catering that well to the middle- and upper-income customers are going to have a tough time.

I think high-end retail sales will get a boost from this news.

The announcement by Neiman Marcus...makes us as concerned as we have ever been that this Christmas will be extremely lackluster. It appears now the high-end consumer is beginning to scale back their purchases, which does not bode well for the holiday season. This type of thing is clearly going to have an impact on other high-end retailers.

We have always been skeptical of their reverting back to their blue light roots in the stores and on the Web, ... Instead of emphasizing every-day low prices, it appears to emphasize one-time grab-bag bargains, which is not what the consumer wants right now.

Wal-Mart's EPS growth is twice that of the S&P. For the third consecutive year it has seen an increase in operating margins and we believe it still has tremendous growth opportunity over the next 5 to 10 years both domestically and abroad. At the very least, this should allow the stock to come off the low-end of the trading range and move higher.

Wal-Mart's cautious comments are warranted. Even though its problems are not company-specific, it does bode badly for the profits and sales across the retail chain in the back half of the year.

Wal-Mart's cautious comments are warranted, ... Even though its problems are not company-specific, it does bode badly for the profits and sales across the retail chain in the back half of the year.

Wal-Mart is a more mature company today and is showing its willingness to be more open with the press, ... From investors' point of view, this is very good news. All the negative publicity has pressured the stock. Maybe this move will help take away some of that 'headline' risk acting on the stock.

Wal-Mart has made it very clear that the prospects for this holiday are much stronger than the conventional wisdom would have had it.

Wal-Mart continues to show strong momentum and operating performance. Its food and apparel sales did well, which fits in with our thesis that Wal-Mart is really taking on the supermarkets. By adding new apparel name brands like Levi's, I think it's in a position to see tremendous success in apparel too.

Wal-Mart continues to show strong momentum and operating performance, ... Its food and apparel sales did well, which fits in with our thesis that Wal-Mart is really taking on the supermarkets. By adding new apparel name brands like Levi's, I think it's in a position to see tremendous success in apparel too.

Wal-Mart and Target continue to prove that they can operate well in this challenging retail environment and deliver profits despite modest to weak sales results.

We knew today was going to be a disaster. What surprises us was how bad it was was.

There has been real concern for the last several months about hurricanes, about consumer sentiment, about gasoline inflation hurting consumer spending,

We knew Sears was going to have some rough sledding ahead but what's obvious now is that it's going to be a lot rougher than anticipated,

We're not out of the woods yet. Forty percent of holiday sales are wrapped up in the week before Christmas.

We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.

While integration risk is always the greatest concern with mergers, we have a high comfort level that the (Federated) game plan is achievable.

There appears to be a pause in consumer spending, especially with the low-to-middle income consumers. The slowing sales also counterbalance positive economic data that show rising income and confidence levels and oil prices coming down. As far as sales go, this is a period where the consumer is taking a break.

Even though Wal-Mart is definitely in a better position than most retailers to absorb any shortfalls, others could be in for a very tough period ahead.

Discount stores have really become an increasing portion of consumers' expenditures. Now there's talk of fluctuating energy prices, job layoffs, and people are looking for the best value possible. So we believe the discount stores are going to benefit disproportionately from the tax rebate. We expect Wal-Mart will be the leader in July.

Consumers were not in the holiday spirit up until the last week of the holiday season, when there was a mad rush for the store. And the big unknown is the result of that game of chicken, where shoppers waited until the last minute to get the best bargains and retailers held off.

There's no point in chasing sales if you're losing money on those sales.

The tire business did break even on a cash basis but not on a full-loaded cost basis, or the total costs incurred to run that business.

They are admitting they have very cloudy visibility on the very critical holiday season. What might be more significant to investors is that even though they had an admittedly superb second quarter, where are we going from here?

The same issues which are depressing the consumer confidence numbers are going to depress holiday sales, ... Christmas is going to show up this year as it shows up every year. The question is, how generous are people going to be? Are they going to go whole hog and return to the decadent spending levels of three or four years ago? No, clearly not. People are going to be buying toys, but how many presents they buy, how wide that circle of gift giving is really is in question.

The sales results from the department and discount chains were mostly in line with expectations.

It would be considered a non-operating item and really will have a very limited financial impact as far as analysts are concerned,

It was very clear to us that ... this year's annual meeting had a new, more sober tone. In the past, (Wal-Mart management) was willing to accept their shortcomings, though some might say it was closer to false modesty. This year, it was very clear that management realizes they have a lot of work to do and are deep into the transition.

The shopper appears to be in mid-season form with the holiday season just having started.

The stock is manipulated by perceptions of the future, and investors are very concerned right now that the economy is weaker than we thought. Wal-Mart is doing a superb job. On other the hand, the stock is vulnerable.

Despite higher gasoline prices, Wal-Mart was able to raise guidance for the second-quarter which is particularly noteworthy because that's also the period that they will have to deal with the lion's share of the gas impact.

Department stores are already focusing on rejecting shipments from vendors that they ordered. They are also looking to promote inventory they already have in hand. As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.

Any retailer who could not surpass expectations last month has to have company-specific problems. September was simply a stellar month.

As far as core operations, there wasn't much of an upside there.

They're trying to create the perception on Wall Street that inventories are in great shape, but how much of that is true sales of merchandise and how much is just accounting?

They're telling us to pull our number down by 4 cents (per share).

As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.

It was a mixed bag, ... What we got again, as we did in December, is this separation of winners and losers.

It shows they're in the ballpark as far as sales go.

It's pretty well accepted that the economy is gradually building momentum, and Kmart has declared bankruptcy,

The news we got today was incrementally negative, even for the best operators out there. And clearly this does not bode well for a strong holiday season.

You tend to mark down stuff when you're stuck,

Even Wal-Mart, with their superior systems, their ability to analyze information, being able to predict sales down to the SKU and generate customer profiles, doesn't have good visibility of what's going on in 2001, which makes us concerned about the guys who don't have that ability,

The back-to-school season started with a bang and we're expecting robust sales in September because the consumer appeared to be flooded with cash.

Target has the best advertising marketing campaign in retailing. They do an amazing job of elevating a discount store to a very cool destination shop and so they are always pushing the envelope.

It's clear that the company is redoubling efforts to strengthen itself and build a competitive advantage. Anything that distracts the management from doing just that will be de-emphasized. The sale of its National Tire and Battery unit is a step in that direction.

They've learned the lessons from last year and are intent upon not repeating the same mistakes.

There's very little excuse for anyone posting weak sales right now, ... If that is happening, it because of company specific excuses. The macro environment overall is very strong. The first month of the quarter got a stellar start and that usually put a lock on the rest of the quarter. Retailers should post improved earnings going forward.

Not only is there top-line pressure, but this is also going to translate into lower margins,

In the game of chicken between retailers and consumers, with one looking to improve profit margins and the other holding out for discounts, it would appear that the consumer blinked. The initial read on the fourth quarter is that profits should come in better than anticipated.

I really would be surprised if they filed. The part of the equation that is missing in a typical bankruptcy situation is that vendors are not clamping down on them. Vendors are not limiting the distribution of merchandise.

Investors have been skeptical about the health of the U.S. consumer, and will use this to take profits.

Clearly the last 10 days before Christmas were very strong and allowed retailers to achieve their sales plans for the month despite the lack of aggressive promotions we saw in 2002.

Clearly they're the leading broad-line retailer right now. They're going to exit this environment with tremendous market share gain, and hopefully they'll be able to translate sales momentum into robust earnings momentum.

Alternatively, the offer could generate additional interest from outside parties, like private equity companies, thus driving Sears Canada's shares.

The company endorsed consensus analysts' estimates of a 15 percent EPS growth in the new fiscal year,

The companies that are seeing strong gross margin improvements are getting it not from improving their merchandising mix, but from improved buying. Retailers like Wal-Mart and Target are lowering their cost of acquiring products. Sears on the other hand, continues to struggle with the turnaround of its department stores and problems with its credit card unit.

All the department stores we talked to admit quite clearly it's an unprecedented environment, and they have no direct comparison in being able to plan. It makes their job very, very difficult.

The low energy prices are more beneficial than any tax break, particularly for discount shoppers.