Bill Dreher Believe Quotations

We believe this will have a negative impact on February sales for the majority of our retailers as the much colder weather will likely impede store traffic, and sales of spring merchandise sets that are now in stores may be impacted.

We believe this update is a combination of management's typical conservatism and sales sluggishness from the unusually warm weather.

On its own, a comp-store inventory increase of 2-to-5 percent is no big deal. But when you've got comp-store sales declines of closer to 10 percent, you're dealing with a possible 10-point spread, which we believe is going to cause retailers to push the promotional panic button earlier than they would have.

Wal-Mart's EPS growth is twice that of the S&P. For the third consecutive year it has seen an increase in operating margins and we believe it still has tremendous growth opportunity over the next 5 to 10 years both domestically and abroad. At the very least, this should allow the stock to come off the low-end of the trading range and move higher.

We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.

Discount stores have really become an increasing portion of consumers' expenditures. Now there's talk of fluctuating energy prices, job layoffs, and people are looking for the best value possible. So we believe the discount stores are going to benefit disproportionately from the tax rebate. We expect Wal-Mart will be the leader in July.