Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
bullish holiday people shopping
I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.
revision sure surprised
I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.
economy economy-and-economics performs prices remain rest
If prices remain where they are, and the rest of the economy performs well, that won't be the end of the world,
demand early economic feeling future growth increase likely means next pain production run starting translated
Inventories really being run down to ground, but that means that any increase in demand in the future will be translated into more production and jobs. We're feeling the pain right now, but it means we're more likely to get economic growth starting early next year.
cuts economy economy-and-economics fastest government help likely money next spend step tax
If you want to really help the economy right away, the fastest way to do that is to have the government spend the money itself, ... The next step would be to give tax cuts to low- and middle-income people, who are more likely to spend the money.
bubble california economic national
If there were a bubble in California and if it were to burst, that would be a national economic catastrophe.
auto begun despite drop employment improve initial market plant saw
In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.
jobs labor market translate
Clearly, the labor market is improving, and this should translate into more jobs in the future,
economic falling fiscal monetary recovery strong support sure value
Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we're not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.
betting gone recession
Clearly, as a betting man, I would have to say the probability of a recession has gone up significantly,
election fed increase might position quarter rates time
By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.
affect auto business economy factors fall higher interest lay local people pick rates sales spending start state wrong
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
effect net
I don't think the net effect would be positive,
based doubt inflation period pull sustained
I doubt that, just based on Friday's number, they'll pull the trigger. They'll want to see a sustained period of inflation before they do that.