Philip Shaw Remain Quotations

Base rates will almost certainly remain on hold at 4.5%.

Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.

Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.

Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.

Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.

The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.

While we believe the recent run of stronger high street spending will peter out, a majority of MPC members may differ and we expect official rates to remain on hold at 4.5 percent.