Ethan Harris Point Quotations

We reached the point where we don't trust our model anymore. That's why we were below the consensus.

Firms have cut back on their capital spending budgets to the point where some of them are not even replacing worn-out equipment. It's been quite a dramatic pullback, and in some sense there's some pent-up demand out there for capital equipment.

You don't want to force the new chairman to open his term by having to make a a 50 basis point rate hike.

Even with this dip, the unemployment rate is still about a percentage point above the level where it might threaten inflation. That means there's plenty of wiggle room for the Fed on policy. They're going to be patient and not change the wording of their statement next week.

As you look down the road, at some point you've got to believe there's a real recovery in capital spending on the way. But I don't see the catalyst anywhere in sight.

If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.