Ethan Harris Rate Quotations

We now believe that the first Fed rate hike will not come until December, and we continue to worry the Fed may be forced to ease again before it begins hiking rates,

These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.

You've had obviously a rise in gasoline prices, which is the visible price in the economy, ... There's (also) a tendency of the public to look at the unemployment rate that actually rose in March, while Wall Street looks at payrolls (which showed a large jump in the number of people working.)

You don't want to force the new chairman to open his term by having to make a a 50 basis point rate hike.

Even with this dip, the unemployment rate is still about a percentage point above the level where it might threaten inflation. That means there's plenty of wiggle room for the Fed on policy. They're going to be patient and not change the wording of their statement next week.

The best tack is to move by a quarter point, with the promise that there will be more cuts to come if the economy remains weak. You can't maintain that promise with big bulky rate cuts.

They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.

If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.