With the price of a barrel of oil rising above $70, and with interest rates slowly increasing, the global economy isn't likely to be picking up steam soon.
Rising business costs and uncertainty in many companies about price hikes is a major consideration now in how fast the domestic economy can grow, especially in the second half of the year.
High and potentially rising energy prices are one consideration in this outlook. Rising costs and questions about whether they will be matched by price hikes are also a factor in how fast the economy grows this spring.
The coincident economic indicators have been rising moderately but steadily in recent months, suggesting the economy is sustaining a relatively moderate pace.